The big grow, the mid-sized lose

An industry growing in revenue, but far more slowly in volume

Revenue grew by 29%, but real growth was only 7%. Five companies control 41% of retail, mid-sized retailers are losing market share, and one company in five has not generated a positive operating profit for three years in a row. The major Biznis Mreza analysis reveals an industry that is growing on paper, but going through deep structural change beneath the surface.

In 2025, the Macedonian fast-moving consumer goods industry generated revenue of 404.9 billion denars. At first glance, this is substantial economic activity, supported by growing sales, higher wages and improved profitability.

But a closer look at the financial results reveals a different picture. Growth is unevenly distributed, a large part of it comes from higher prices, and competitive advantage is increasingly concentrated among the largest companies.

These are some of the conclusions of the comprehensive analysis that the Biznis Mreza analytics team prepared for FMCG Summit 2026, titled “X-RAY of the FMCG industry in North Macedonia”.

The research covers approximately 8,000 companies, a four-year period from 2022 to 2025, and 32,242 annual financial profiles.

The analysis includes the production, distribution and retail of fast-moving consumer goods, among them food, beverages, dairy and meat products, bread, fruit and vegetables, cosmetics and other related categories. The tobacco sector is also covered, but it is excluded from certain comparisons of growth and profitability.

The aim was not only to establish how much the industry has grown, but to answer far more important questions. How much of the growth is real? Which companies are increasing their competitiveness? Where is new value being created, and where does revenue growth mask a weak business model?

The illusion of growth: 29% more revenue does not mean 29% more products sold

One of the most significant findings is the gap between nominal and real growth.

Between 2022 and 2025, the revenue of comparable FMCG companies, excluding the tobacco sector, grew by 29%. However, once the effect of rising food prices is excluded, the real increase is approximately 7%.

This means that the industry did not sell 29% more products. At the level of aggregate sales, real volume grew by around 7%, while most of the nominal growth is the result of higher prices.

The difference is fundamental.

A company that sells roughly the same quantity of products at higher prices can show substantial revenue growth without winning new consumers, increasing its market share or expanding the physical volume of its operations.

That is precisely why nominal turnover, viewed in isolation, is not a sufficient indicator of an industry's real dynamics.

In addition, real growth is slowing considerably. In 2023 there was a decline of 0.3%, in 2024 growth of 6%, and in 2025 growth fell to only 1.2%.

This is a particularly important signal for future development.

After a period of strong price changes, the industry is gradually running up against the limits of real demand. Consumers may spend more money on everyday products, but that does not mean they are buying proportionally larger quantities.

For companies, this raises a new question: how to secure growth when price increases can no longer be the main driver of revenue?

The answer will increasingly depend on winning market share, developing new products, better distribution and higher productivity.

The milk phenomenon: why 405 billion denars of turnover is not the same as 405 billion of new value

An industry's total turnover is an important indicator of its economic activity, but it does not fully show the value the industry creates.

To explain the difference, the analysis uses the example of a single carton of milk.

This is not an accounting error. Each company correctly records its own revenue, but when the revenue of the whole industry is added up, the same product appears several times along the supply chain.

That is why, to understand the real economic contribution, newly created value is a far more important indicator.

According to the calculations of the Biznis Mreza analytics team, of the total 404.9 billion denars of invoiced revenue in 2025, approximately 55 billion denars is newly created value, measured through operating profit and wage costs.

That is about 14 denars out of every 100 denars of invoiced turnover.

This does not mean that the remaining 86 denars are unnecessary or lost. To a large extent they reflect the value of purchased goods, raw materials and other intermediate costs.

The distinction matters for understanding the economy. Turnover shows how much business activity passed through the companies, while newly created value better shows how large their own contribution is.

The big are winning retail, the mid-sized are losing ground

Perhaps the most important structural change the analysis reveals is taking place in retail.

Between 2022 and 2025, large retailers, defined as companies with more than 500 million denars of revenue in the starting year, achieved real growth of 20%.

Over the same period, mid-sized retailers, with revenue between 50 and 500 million denars, recorded a real decline of 7%.

At the same time, the market share of the five largest companies rose from 38% to 41%.

Taken together, these three indicators point to an accelerating concentration of the market.

Large retail chains have advantages that become ever more important when real growth is limited. Larger purchasing volumes give them a stronger negotiating position with suppliers, while developed logistics, a wider sales network and the ability to spread fixed costs over a larger volume create a further competitive advantage.

For mid-sized companies, the problem is more complex.

They often carry significant operating costs and an organizational structure, but lack the volume to obtain the terms of their largest competitors. At the same time, they do not always have the flexibility of small, specialized retailers.

This creates competitive pressure from two sides.

This does not mean that mid-sized companies are doomed to disappear. But their strategy so far, especially if it rests on direct price competition with the large chains, is becoming ever harder to sustain.

One possible direction is greater cooperation among independent retailers. Joint purchasing, pooled distribution capacity, shared private labels and investment in technology can help narrow the cost gap.

Another option is specialization. Instead of trying to compete in every product category, some companies can build an advantage in particular products, local markets, service or the customer experience.

The data do not prove that every alliance or specialization will succeed. But they clearly show that keeping the existing model without adapting carries an ever greater risk.

Profitability is rising, but profits are not evenly distributed

At the level of the industry, the financial results show a positive trend.

Between 2022 and 2025, the net profit of the FMCG sector, excluding tobacco, grew by 37%, against nominal revenue growth of 29%.

For comparison, the net profit of the rest of the economy grew by 14%.

This indicates that over the period analyzed the FMCG industry managed to improve its aggregate financial result faster than the rest of the economy.

Producers are particularly interesting: their operating margin rose from 9.9% to 12.1%.

But these results should be interpreted with care.

Aggregate profit can grow even when a significant number of companies face stagnation or deteriorating results. It is enough for the most successful and largest companies to grow strongly to pull the average of the whole industry upwards.

That is one of the reasons why the Biznis Mreza analysis does not stop at the aggregate indicators.

In 2025, 49% of comparable FMCG companies achieved real revenue growth. This means that more than half did not manage to increase their revenue faster than inflation.

Still, there is also a positive shift. The share of companies operating at a net loss fell from 30% to 24%.

These results reveal an industry in which the financial position of some companies is improving, but real growth remains limited and unevenly distributed.

Which activities have potential, and which are under pressure?

The differences between individual FMCG activities are considerable.

Over the period analyzed, cosmetics retail recorded real growth of 41%, while the production of soft drinks grew by 14%.

There are also positive results in specialized food retail, with growth of 13%, and in confectionery, coffee and prepared food, with growth of 14%. Supermarkets recorded real growth of 12%.

These results suggest that part of the growth is shifting towards categories with greater specialization, variety and distinct consumer needs.

But there is an important methodological caveat. In cosmetics retail and soft drink production, more than 70% of the growth of the respective activity comes from a single company.

A high growth rate for an activity therefore does not mean that all companies in it are equally successful.

On the other hand, several traditional categories show real stagnation or decline.

The production of milk and dairy products recorded a decline of 2%, fruit and vegetables also 2%, bread 1% and wine 9%.

The decline is particularly pronounced in the milling industry, where real revenue fell by 35%.

These differences should not automatically be read as proof that consumers are permanently abandoning traditional products. The results can be affected by raw material prices, exports, changes in the structure of production and competitive conditions.

Still, the data confirm that there is no single trend that holds for the whole FMCG industry.

Some categories are growing and achieving relatively high margins. Others are growing with low profitability, while some traditional producers are maintaining their earnings despite lower real revenue.

Wages are rising, but new jobs are almost absent

The changes in the industry are also visible in the labor market.

The number of employees in comparable FMCG companies rose from 42,271 in 2022 to 43,082 in 2025, an increase of approximately 2%.

Over the same period, the average net wage rose from 24,012 to 34,400 denars.

In nominal terms, that is an increase of 43%; in real terms, after excluding inflation, about 22%.

The industry, in other words, pays considerably more, but is not increasing the number of employees at a similar pace.

This may be linked to labor shortages, pressure on wages and companies' need to retain their existing employees. The financial data alone do not make it possible to determine precisely how much each of these factors contributes.

At the same time, real newly created value per employee grew by 22%, while real sales per employee increased by only 5%.

This is a significant difference.

It shows that companies are creating more value per employee, even though the volume of sales per worker is growing much more slowly. The improvement may come from higher margins, more efficient use of resources and changes in the cost structure.

But despite the growth, the average net wage in FMCG remains at about 92% of the average for all companies. Particularly low wages are found in food shops, where the average is 25,944 denars.

This poses a long-term challenge.

Companies will have to keep investing in technology, automation, better organization and the development of their employees' skills. Without productivity growth, further wage increases will put ever greater pressure on profitability.

One company in five operates without a positive operating profit

Beyond growth and profitability, the analysis also reveals significant financial vulnerability.

In the FMCG industry, 1,372 companies were identified that did not achieve a positive operating profit for three consecutive years, from 2023 to 2025.

They represent 21% of the group analyzed, yet generate only 1.4% of its turnover.

In the analysis they are labelled “zombie” companies, under the operating criterion of EBITDA less than or equal to zero in all three years.

This term should not be equated with formal insolvency or with certainty that the company will cease to operate. Some of these firms may have their own reserves, support from their owners or a specific business model.

But three consecutive years without a positive operating result are a serious signal of weakness.

In addition, in 2025 1,828 FMCG companies had blocked accounts, or around 16% of operating firms, slightly above the comparable figure of 15% for the economy as a whole.

Particularly important is the finding on the link between payment terms and financial risk.

Companies that pay their suppliers after more than 180 days have a 2.5 times higher risk of having their account blocked in the following year, according to the data analyzed.

This is one of the most practical messages of the research.

Financial problems do not appear overnight. They often leave signals in companies' behavior, especially in liquidity and in meeting their obligations.

For banks, suppliers, insurance companies and business partners, monitoring such indicators can make it possible to recognize increased risk earlier.

The market is renewing itself: fewer closures, more new companies

Not all structural changes are negative.

The data show a significant improvement in the dynamics of company formation and closure.

The number of FMCG companies that closed fell from 854 in 2022 to 475 in 2025, almost halving.

At the same time, the number of newly founded companies that are still operating rose from 531 in 2022 to 649 in 2025.

These data point to improved dynamics of business renewal, but on their own they are not enough to conclude that the new companies are financially more successful or more sustainable in the long run.

Especially in an industry where concentration is rising, it is important to distinguish the number of new entrants from their real economic weight.

A larger number of small companies can create additional competition and variety, but that need not reduce the dominance of the largest retail chains.

Future dynamics will therefore depend not only on how many companies open, but also on how many of them manage to build a sustainable business and move on to the next stage of development.

Outlook to 2028: nominal growth continues, real volume stagnates

One of the most significant parts of the analysis is the projection for the period from 2026 to 2028.

In 2025, all 13 segments analyzed recorded a slowdown in real growth.

Based on movements so far and the projection model used, the Biznis Mreza analytics team estimates that the total real volume of the FMCG industry could grow by only around 1% over the whole period from 2026 to 2028.

At the same time, nominal revenue could increase by 10% to 13%, mainly as a result of inflation.

That would mean a continuation of the trend in which financial turnover grows faster than the real volume of sales.

Under the baseline scenario, the best growth prospects are in cosmetics retail, confectionery, coffee, prepared food and supermarkets.

In food distribution, specialized retail, bread, meat and soft drinks, mostly stagnation is expected.

Negative movements are projected for wine, beer and cosmetics production, while for dairy products, fruit and vegetables, milling and tobacco the uncertainty is greater.

Still, these projections do not determine the fate of individual companies.

Even in an industry with low aggregate growth, certain companies can achieve considerably better results through innovation, winning market share, exports or more efficient operations.

That is precisely the difference between passively following the market and actively building a competitive advantage.

The next phase of the FMCG industry will be shaped by productivity and strategy, not prices

When all the indicators are considered together, a fairly clear picture emerges of the direction in which the industry is moving.

The Macedonian FMCG sector is not in general collapse. On the contrary, the industry as a whole is more profitable, wages are rising, the number of closing companies is falling, and some activities show considerable potential.

But at the same time, real growth is slowing, concentration in retail is increasing, and mid-sized companies are losing ground.

This indicates that the industry is gradually moving from a period in which higher prices substantially increased turnover to one in which results will depend more and more on operational efficiency and the ability to win new demand.

For producers, this means a greater focus on product development, productivity, exports and better positioning.

For distributors, optimizing logistics, inventory management and cost control will be key.

For retailers, especially mid-sized ones, strategic positioning, cooperation and a clear point of difference from the competition will matter most.

For financial institutions and suppliers, the analysis further confirms the importance of timely monitoring of the liquidity, financial results and payment behavior of business partners.

There are three broader conclusions.

1. 1

   First, revenue growth can no longer be read as sufficient proof of success. Companies must measure real volume, value created, profitability and productivity.

2. 2

   Second, the competitive structure of retail is changing. Size is becoming an ever more important advantage, but specialization and cooperation can create alternative paths to development.

3. 3

   Third, the financial health of companies and their business partners is becoming an essential part of strategy. Sales growth is of little value if it is not accompanied by sustainable liquidity and collectability.

Real growth is yet to be created

The most important message of the analysis is that the FMCG industry in North Macedonia needs new sources of growth.

In recent years, a significant part of the increase in turnover came from inflation. But higher prices cannot permanently replace higher productivity, new markets and stronger competitiveness.

At the same time, the differences between successful and vulnerable companies are becoming ever more visible.

The market will not stop creating opportunities. But those opportunities will not be equally available to everyone.

Companies that invest in time in technology, better organization, specialization, cooperation and the development of new markets will have a better chance of growing faster than the industry.

Those that rely solely on their existing model and on nominal revenue increases risk gradually losing their competitive position.

And that is exactly why data analysis is becoming ever more important. Not only to understand what happened in the past, but to recognize in time the risks, changes and opportunities that are shaping the future.

About the analysis and methodology

The analysis “X-RAY of the FMCG industry in North Macedonia” was prepared by the Biznis Mreza analytics team for FMCG Summit 2026.

The research covers approximately 8,000 companies and 32,242 annual financial profiles for the period from 2022 to 2025.

Growth was calculated using comparable groups of companies with financial data available in all four years. The main analysis of growth excluding tobacco covers 6,132 companies, which account for 98% of the turnover of the respective group.

Real movements in revenue were calculated by excluding the effect of inflation, using the indices of the State Statistical Office. Operating profitability was analyzed through EBITDA, while newly created value was estimated through the operating result and labor costs, in line with the definitions in the presentation.

The projections for 2026–2028 are based on historical trends and inflation assumptions from the World Bank and the IMF. They represent a baseline analytical scenario, not a certain forecast.

Sources

• Biznis Mreza
• Companies' financial statements
• State Statistical Office
• Eurostat
• World Bank
• International Monetary Fund

Author: Biznis Mreza Analytics Team